Our baseline demand-supply model of China’s national ETS projects a moderate tightening of coal-plants’ supply until 2030. However, the ETS will cover more industrial sectors and these will be overallocated at first, causing the existing allowance surplus to persist until 2026. While we expect a peak of power emissions in 2025, emissions from industrial sectors will continue to increase beyond 2030.
Status quo According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), China is currently responsible for about 30% of annual global greenhouse gas emissions. The country’s intensity-based emission trading system (ETS) currently covers only emissions from power …
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