2030 demand-supply forecast: final allocation plan changes market balance
Since Veyt’s last China ETS demand-supply forecast in August 2024, the Chinese government has finalised the program’s 2023-2024 allocation plan. Veyt has also adjusted its forecast of the country’s electricity generation by 2030 based on the current trajectory of energy consumption in China. This analysis details the new policy developments and forecast update, explains how they relate to model assumptions, and illustrates how they affect the resulting demand-supply forecast accordingly.
Background Unlike other ETS which impose absolute caps on emissions (see those of the EU or North America), China’s national ETS is an intensity-based system capping not total emissions but emissions per unit of production. The allowed ratio of emissions ...
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