The report by Bank Gospodarstwa Krajowego (BGK) provides an analysis of several recent studies on the local sector. While noting significant hurdles still need to be overcome, it suggests there is much reason for optimism ahead. It also sees opportunities in Ukraine, with cooperation benefiting Poland’s energy security and decarbonisation goals. Given the role of BGK in financing projects, this is a bullish signal for biomethane investors and capital.

However, realising investment will depend upon supportive legislation. With the Draft Law 1130 supporting biomethane still working its way through the Senate, Poland is unlikely to make a significant contribution to the REPowerEU goal of 35 bcm by 2030. To date, decarbonisation has focussed upon the electricity sector via the installation of solar and wind capacity. Efforts to accelerate the biogas sector are relatively new; the first pilot-sized biomethane plant was commissioned in Poznań in February 2025, with a modest output of around 7 GWh annually. However, BGK anticipates that at least thirty projects will receive permits in 2026; the country could reach annual production of 5 bcm by 2035.

From BGK report, page 22

Optimistic scenario envisages a national strategy with structured policies similar to France, Denmark or the UK.

Realistic scenario is more akin to Germany, with fragmented regulation.

However, technical progress alone is insufficient; barriers in the feedstock logistics also need to be overcome. While waste and residues contribute to the nation’s high biomethane potential, the agricultural sector is fragmented. This will require smaller biomethane plants to exploit these resources, which have poorer economies of scale. The previously mentioned draft law should make these necessary smaller plants viable.

While Ukraine has had recent wins, it still faces substantial challenges in addition to the current war, which has seen at least four biogas plants destroyed. Announcements covering Ukrainian biomethane have focused on exports to the EU premium market at the expense of the local market which currently offers little incentive for biomethane production or consumption. This is somewhat encapsulated by the fact that biomethane is still subject to a domestic CO2 tax.

Nevertheless, Ukraine production costs are competitive with the EU, ranging from EUR 54/MWh to EUR 91/MWh depending on economies of scale. At the former price, BGK suggested that biomethane would be competitive with natural gas in the ETS, where EUAs must also be procured for fossil natural gas usage. Given these international incentives exports appear to be the way forward, at least in the medium term. Projections put Ukrainian biomethane export potential at 1 bcm by 2030 in the absence of major infrastructure barriers.

Collaboration between the two countries was highlighted by the MoU signed in 2023 between the two system operators – GAZ-SYSTEM (Poland) and GTSOU (Ukraine) – to enhance green gas infrastructure (both biomethane and hydrogen). Poland also offers another route for Ukrainian biomethane to reach EU markets.

Orlen signs MoU with KGS

Orlen announced an MoU with state-owned agri-food group Krajowa Grupa Spozywcza (KGS) to develop biomethane plants nationally. Similar to the BGK report, the Orlen press release highlighted the opportunity to enhance energy security and independence, as well as grid stability. The partnership also serves to mitigate some of the barriers posed by a fragmented agricultural sector, mentioned in the BGK report.

Both counterparties highlighted natural synergies with their operations, with Orlen able to leverage its position in the natural gas sector to aid decarbonisation of transport. Meanwhile, KGS offers feedstock streams and waste logistics, with the development of a biomethane portfolio also aligning with their aims to decarbonise its entire agri-food chain.

The Orlen Group is aiming to deploy 240 mcm of biomethane annually by 2035, which would contribute towards its National Indicative Target in transport. It already has plans for commissioning Poland’s first biomethane plant in Glabowo with onsite liquefaction, capable of producing 7 mcm per year – more than 5 tonnes bioLNG equivalent.