The European Commission confirms 54.2 million EUAs will be cancelled from the 2026 auctions. The auction calendar will be updated to reflect this change shortly. The cancellation will have a bullish market impact.
On 3 December, the European Commission released the 2025 Carbon Market Report as a part of the broader ‘State of the Energy Union.’
Included within the report is a description of the maritime compliance data for 2024. As a part of this reporting, the European Commission provides the volume of allowances to be cancelled in 2026 corresponding to the gap between verified emissions and allowances surrendered for shipping operators.
A total of 54,243,768 allowances will be cancelled from 2026 auctions, in line with Veyt’s up-front expectations. An update to the 2026 auction calendar is required to implement this cancellation which we expect shortly as it is required to take place at least four weeks ahead of the 2026 auction start on 7 January.
The market impact of the cancellation is bullish. For the longer term, the cancellation significantly cuts into 2026 supply. For short term trading, the news of the cancellation may prompt a market reaction, the magnitude of which is dependent on participant expectations of the supply cut.
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