We estimate that the 2026 auction volume will be adjusted  56.7 million EUAs or 9.7% of the auction volume currently in the 2026 auction calendar.

According to the union registry on 1 October, the maritime sector emitted a total of 91.5 Mt CO2 eq for 2024. As this sector has a gradual phase-in to the EU ETS, the sector needs to comply with only 40% of emissions for this year. This equates to a compliance obligation of 36.6 Mt, assuming that the sector’s emissions reporting is complete.

The data in the union registry as of 1 October shows that the maritime sector has handed in 34.8 allowances for 2024 emissions or 95% of total obligations by the deadline.

In 2024 the EU ETS cap saw a full cap extension due to the shipping sector’s inclusion, with 78.4 million allowances added to the cap and to 2024 auctions. With a full cap extension in 2024 and only 40% compliance obligations, a retroactive adjustment will take effect that will be implemented in the 2026 auction calendar.

This cancellation will be based on the difference between the verified emissions and the allowances surrendered in respect of each year. We assume that the European Commission will base it on the numbers that were available by the deadline. With the data available in the union registry as of 1 October, we estimate 2026 auction volumes will be reduced by 56.7 million allowances.

The compliance deadline was 30 September. The Commission has communicated that they will release an excel file with the compliance data by 6 October at the latest. The cancellation of auction volumes for the maritime sector will be deducted from the 2026 auction volume through an amendment to the auction calendars to be adopted by the end of this year.